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ARMCHAIR FUTURE 2015
December 5th 2004, 20:37 CET by Marsh Davies

Although I have no wish to give credence to the warblings of a weak trans-temporal-troll like Titor, I must say I admire him for sticking his neck out. By contrast, all we get here is: “We should have predicted this,” or “We were wrong about that…” Yeah, yeah. Whine whinge piss moan. Well, my coterie of budding super-informed globo-political commentators and socio-cultural critics, I invite you to toss away your retrospective rants and leave your haven of hindsight. Squeeze yourself into the polluted comfort of your time-futon and travel with me to a world beyond tomorrow! Yes! Travel with me to… FUTURE TIME!

Similarly valiant voyagers into the uncertain future are the CIA, whose document Global Trends 2015 was declassified in April of this year and sets out a fairly reasonable prediction of the state of the world. Originally completed in December 2000, the predictions regarding Iraq have quite famously failed to come to pass, but, generally, I’m impressed by its scope. “This is not a traditional intelligence assessment, depending on classified sources and methods,” says DCI George Tenet. “Rather, it reflects an Intelligence Community fully engaged with outside experts in a constructive dialogue about the future… Experts from academia, think-tanks and the corporate world have made major contributions.”

It makes an interesting read, particularly the sections regarding the rise of China:
Estimates of China beyond five years are fraught with unknowables. Some projections indicate that Chinese power will rise because of the growth of its economic and military capabilities. Other projections indicate that the array of political, social, and economic pressures will increasingly challenge the stability and legitimacy of the regime. Most assessments today argue that China will seek to avoid conflict in the region to promote stable economic growth and to ensure internal stability. A strong China, others assert, would seek to adjust regional power arrangements to its advantage, risking conflict with neighbors and some powers external to the region. A weak China would increase prospects for criminality, narcotics trafficking, illegal migration, WMD proliferation, and widespread social instability.


More akin to us amateurs, are our Fellow Armchair-Futurists of The Speculist. Amongst a series of specific but small scale predictions are:…

NASA begins to plan seriously for a space elevator. An equatorial island is quietly acquired for this purpose. We return to the moon using proven Saturn V type rockets. It will be the last major NASA initiative to use rocket technology to launch from earth.


and

Artificial blood is perfected. Patients who have lost the ability to produce blood are now given permanent blood replacement. These patients find that the artificial blood is superior. The medical community begins discussing the idea of blood replacement within healthy individuals as an elective procedure.


Finally, there is the delight of LongBets.org. Of those bets with a ten year life span, perhaps the most pertinent to the Crap’s readership is:

In 2012, 75 percent of all revenue for enterprise software companies will be from subscription fees rather than license fees.


And the most… odd…:

By 2012 scientists will not have developed an explanation for how images on the Shroud of Turin came to be on the cloth -an explanation that satisfies all of the physical and chemical properties of the images and does not violate basic laws of physics.


So, then, Crappers of Tomorrow, what can we predict from our own respective fields of knowledge, or alternatively, conjecture from our pools of ignorance? And don’t think you can get away with wishy-washy generality (albeit that this is the extent of a reasonable prediction). No ambiguity: I demand totally speculative Titoresque bullet-pointed lists of events of what could happen. Have a tin-foil hat. Your reputations are not at stake.

Within 10 years:

I foresee the beginnings of centralisation of all digital services: TV, internet, software, telecommunications.

Syria will not be invaded, but offered massive investment, and the opportunity of piping oil through to Israel. Having seen the result of an invasion in Iraq, they will take the carrot.

Cure for cancer found and testing begun.

Insurgency will remain throughout the middle-east, but the area will become more stable at the level of state.

Progressive African governments will begin to receive huge political and financial aid, and the modernisation already evident in the major cities of East African nations, will rapidly spread.

Internet Gun invented. Oslen twin p0rn.
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Home » Topic: ARMCHAIR FUTURE 2015

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#4 by LPMiller
2004-12-05 20:58:27
lpmiller@gotapex.com http://www.gotapex.com
by 2015, most cars purchased will be hybrids.

Someone, I'm guessing a multi national like Time Warner, will by Amazon.com

Walmart will suffer a serious of profit losses.

The bush twins will be getting ready to start their bid for office. It will be derailed by a huge cat fight over who gets to be president, and who gets to be VP. It will be the most downloaded video in history, and they will win by a landslide.

When LP says he's bringing Armageddon, he brings fucking Armageddon. - Caryn, 6/01/2004
#5 by BobJustBob
2004-12-05 21:21:47
Within 10 years, we will live in a post-apocalyptic wasteland. Hopefully.

Dood.
#6 by Anonymous
2004-12-05 21:30:56
I'm also looking forward to that, Bob.

#7 by Dumdeedum
2004-12-05 21:35:47
http://www.dumdeedum.com
By 2015 I predict Britney Spears will launch a comeback by "reinventing" herself as a serious singer, she will be wildly successful and will gushingly thank her kids for helping her get off drugs.

And of course, in 2015 drugs will still be illegal and so we'll still have all the same problems related to them.  Politicians will still use them for election currency.

Speaking of politicians, between now and then, I predict they'll have backed invading other countries "for their own good" approximately every 4 years.

But most importantly, by 2015 I predict PlanetCrap 9.0 will have gained sentience and will strike against humanity with bitter and jaded pop culture references.

#8 by anaqer
2004-12-05 21:48:12
Within 10 years, there will be no sentient life in the post-apocalyptic wasteland. Hopefully.

Fixed for ya.

I DO NOT CHEAT.
I just play by extended rules.
#9 by G-Man
2004-12-05 21:53:59
My predictions have already been made for me.
#10 by Leslie Nassar
2004-12-05 21:54:35
http://departmentofinternets.com
flying cars and killbots and glam-hop.

My favorite band sucks.
#11 by Leslie Nassar
2004-12-05 22:00:03
http://departmentofinternets.com
addendum;  this beats bangin', i'm rap talkin', sweet spits slangin', keep your feet hoppin'

My favorite band sucks.
#12 by Dethstryk
2004-12-05 22:00:29
jemartin@tcainternet.com
By 2015 I will have the massive number of terabytes I need for my project to render all humans obsolete.
#13 by Leslie Nassar
2004-12-05 22:03:59
http://departmentofinternets.com
how many terabytes are needed to find a synonym for obsolete?

My favorite band sucks.
#14 by G-Man
2004-12-05 22:30:42
I predict that turkey fryers will be outlawed.
#15 by Ashiran
2004-12-05 22:34:21
2012: First completely artifical animal created.

Nihil nequeo.
#16 by Ashiran
2004-12-05 22:34:53
Also I predict the collapse of global economics within two years.

Nihil nequeo.
#17 by LPMiller
2004-12-05 22:45:00
lpmiller@gotapex.com http://www.gotapex.com
Nah, it will teeter totter much longer than that.

When LP says he's bringing Armageddon, he brings fucking Armageddon. - Caryn, 6/01/2004
#18 by Caryn
2004-12-05 23:59:19
carynlaw@pacbell.net http://www.hellchick.net
I predict by 2015 that a private company will be making routine suborbital flights for upper-middle class citizens.

(probably not a very risky prediction, I suppose.)

Spiritual life can be regarded as a course of gradual recovery from the addiction to the peculiar type of awareness that splits everything into subject and object. - George Feuerstein
#19 by Sgt Hulka
2004-12-06 00:47:35
Here's what I think. They should have a show called Pimp my Pimp, where you get to ghetto up some pimps that aren't quite pimpy enough. I'd watch that.  for about 5 mins.

100% Hulka Post - Now with Lemon Scent!
#20 by Matt Perkins
2004-12-06 00:53:38
wizardque@yahoo.com http://whatwouldmattdo.com/
I predict I'll be running my own game company and making moderately successful games...  And I'll still have no grasp on the english language.

"She told me to tell you to quit being such an anal-retentive pussy."- Ergo
#21 by Anonymous
2004-12-06 00:56:21
#18
That's way too optimistic a prediction considering the global economy is going to collapse within two years. I predict though, that by 2015 there will be private companies conducting commercial suborbital flights for the upper-upper class citizens.

#22 by Marsh Davies
2004-12-06 00:57:51
www.verbalchilli.com
Caryn:
I predict by 2015 that a private company will be making routine suborbital flights for upper-middle class citizens.


What do you think will happen to NASA?

#23 by Leslie Nassar
2004-12-06 01:01:47
http://departmentofinternets.com
i predict that caryn will be celebrating christmas at her moon-lair, eating moon-cheese and working on Quake VII.

My favorite band sucks.
#24 by Caryn
2004-12-06 01:04:45
carynlaw@pacbell.net http://www.hellchick.net
Marsh --

I think NASA will still exist but will be getting much less funding, and will likely be a few years away from being eliminated. I think the government will phase NASA out of existence and will begin awarding contracts to private companies for space-based transport, much as it does now for its defense contracts.

Spiritual life can be regarded as a course of gradual recovery from the addiction to the peculiar type of awareness that splits everything into subject and object. - George Feuerstein
#25 by yotsuya
2004-12-06 01:23:47
I think that 11 years from now, nothing will have changed.

Think about the world in 1980. If you would have asked people "What is the world going to look like in the year 2000?", they would have told you some crazy stuff- houses that rotate to face the sun, personal hand-held food cookers, clothes that monitor body temperature, personal helicopters. I'm not making this stuff up- I have an article that predicts all that and more.

Fashion might be different, music might be different, pop culture will be different- but the important stuff will always be the same. Your cars will still have tires, your homes will still have wood frames, and Ben Affleck will still be in 10-15 movies a year.

"yot's a religious nut that really truly actually believes in a physical heaven with a graybearded man on a throne with an individual master plan for all of us and a Make A Mountain clay kit nearby"- gaggle
#26 by Eyegore
2004-12-06 01:28:10
http://home.cfl.rr.com/eyegore/gallery.htm
By 2015 the fast lanes of most major highways will be designated for auto-drive only, and will move considderably faster than the manual drive lanes speed limit.  aThis will be the first step in getting the public to accept that cars driving themselves is faster, safer, and more convenient, leading to more and more of this until manual driving is finally outlawed everywhere except for the most rural places.
#27 by Marsh Davies
2004-12-06 01:29:26
www.verbalchilli.com
Eyegore - I hope so since this legitimises my terror of ever getting in a driving seat again.

#28 by Eyegore
2004-12-06 01:30:57
http://home.cfl.rr.com/eyegore/gallery.htm
Yot I don't know if you noticed, but the world now is incredibly different from 1980.  Personal computers everywhere for one thing (duh), the internet, computerized everything.  Lasers, satalite, GPS, Cellphones...jeez I could go on and on.
#29 by m0nty
2004-12-06 01:38:58
http://tinfinger.blogspot.com
In 2015, 3DR will switch to the Doom VIII engine for DNF.
#30 by Funkdrunk
2004-12-06 01:47:14
jflavius@bellatlantic.net
And it took 29 posts.  I was expecting a DNF comment way earlier.  

Funk

and like a nerd I'll make you say he's superb.
#31 by Wudi
2004-12-06 01:50:29
I predict Hippie McFatty will be divorced by 2015.

I can hardly stand her trolling posts. just imagine wtf kind of pain her husband has to put up with living with her.

Zep--

Oh, and all cats will be dead by 2015. *PLEASE*

Inverted Mouse 4 Life, YO!
#32 by CheesyPoof
2004-12-06 01:55:04
What are some good PS2 games for an 8 year old?  I was thinking Ratchet and Clank, but it has too many guns I think.  Any other good platformers available?  Bestsellers only.  This kid is getting his first PS2 and can play the $20 games for a while.
#33 by yotsuya
2004-12-06 01:55:48
Eyegore-

Those are little things- fundamentally, however, nothing has really changed. Yes, you don't have to go to the pr0n store anymore to get your rocks off, but the way you get there has not fundamentally changed.

And in 2015, Wudi will finally be 20 years old, but still living at home.

"yot's a religious nut that really truly actually believes in a physical heaven with a graybearded man on a throne with an individual master plan for all of us and a Make A Mountain clay kit nearby"- gaggle
#34 by FoRmaT
2004-12-06 01:59:41
I have to agree that there will be hybrid cars, I think another there will be many human lives lost to islamic act of terror, I think America will do many stupid things that will alienate the rest of the world, I think unemployment will go up, prices of flatscreen TV´s will drop so that I can finally buy one.

Oh wait, all that is already happening...

"Uhm... it back-fired a bit. :( "  - Andy, 12/20/98
#35 by BobJustBob
2004-12-06 01:59:59
What are some good PS2 games for an 8 year old?


Katamari Damacy.

Dood.
#36 by G-Man
2004-12-06 02:15:15
Eyetoy.
#37 by yotsuya
2004-12-06 02:15:39
I have to agree that there will be hybrid cars, I think another there will be many human lives lost to islamic act of terror, I think America will do many stupid things that will alienate the rest of the world, I think unemployment will go up, prices of flatscreen TV´s will drop so that I can finally buy one.

Oh wait, all that is already happening...

I predict this schtick will get old by post #37.

"yot's a religious nut that really truly actually believes in a physical heaven with a graybearded man on a throne with an individual master plan for all of us and a Make A Mountain clay kit nearby"- gaggle
#38 by yotsuya
2004-12-06 02:15:53
WOW! I was right!

"yot's a religious nut that really truly actually believes in a physical heaven with a graybearded man on a throne with an individual master plan for all of us and a Make A Mountain clay kit nearby"- gaggle
#39 by FoRmaT
2004-12-06 02:24:45
Hey, it´s called lack of imagination and doesn´t ever get old.

"Uhm... it back-fired a bit. :( "  - Andy, 12/20/98
#40 by FoRmaT
2004-12-06 02:32:20
But honestly, it´s harder for me to see the positive in the future than the negative. We should think less of the future and fix our fucked up world of today to ensure that there WILL BE a future. Of course I don´t know how. We should start, however, by killing all arabs. Bad jokes aside, does anybody think that there will be another Adolf Hitler? What have we learned from WW2? People are still being killed for the color of their skin or their religious (dis)belief every day. These questions matter more to me than mobile telephony that works by sticking a finger into your ear or the ability to fly to the moon and starve there.

"Uhm... it back-fired a bit. :( "  - Andy, 12/20/98
#41 by Ex-S Woo
2004-12-06 02:46:57
leew5@earthlink.net
I think a country would have to get fucked over pretty badly for a person like Hitler to come into power...and well, although there are some fucked up countries right now, I don't think any of them have the power to really affect world events.
#42 by Eyegore
2004-12-06 02:57:54
http://home.cfl.rr.com/eyegore/gallery.htm
Hello?  Did you see what just happened on election day?  That's 1 step away from the next hitler.  Clearchannel just put up billboards all over florida with GW's gigantic face and the words 'OUR LEADER'.  1984 is closer than you think.
#43 by Ex-S Woo
2004-12-06 03:05:13
leew5@earthlink.net
I somehow doubt that.
#44 by zimbardo_ugly
2004-12-06 03:05:35
zimbardo_ugly@hotmail.com
Firefox, or some Mozilla.org's derivative, will have become the dominant browser.

"They know that Hamlet and Lear are gay;
Gaiety transfiguring all that dread."
--W. B. Yeats
#45 by Ex-S Woo
2004-12-06 03:12:22
leew5@earthlink.net
I predict that free P2P programs will be mostly dead for the most part by 2015, mostly due to stricter enforcement by various companies and new laws that relate to the use of such programs.  In its stead will come legal versions that will offer similar items for a pretty affordable price.  

Many will bitch regardless.
#46 by McBain
2004-12-06 03:14:43
In 2015, the world will be embroiled in constant cold/hot wars for petroleum.  There will be constant economic recession, conscription, and massive increases in crime.  It will mark the ending of the world petroleum age and the shift into the post-oil die off.

www.dailyhowler.com is the single most important website that Americans should read every day.
"The dreams in which I'm dying are the best I've ever had."
#47 by yotsuya
2004-12-06 03:18:10
Clearchannel just put up billboards all over florida with GW's gigantic face and the words 'OUR LEADER'. [/qupte]

Yeha, but it's Florida. I mean, really.

"yot's a religious nut that really truly actually believes in a physical heaven with a graybearded man on a throne with an individual master plan for all of us and a Make A Mountain clay kit nearby"- gaggle
#48 by FoRmaT
2004-12-06 03:24:34
I seriously believe there will be another Adolf Hitler. You Americans lose civil rights every day. After 60 years of taboo in Germany, politicians are daring to speak negatively about all the inmigration in Germany. Politicians want to take away the celebration the day of the German reunion. German radio stations are now, or will be in near future, required to play a minimum of x% national music, like it is the case in France. The British consider themselves not part of Europe. 59 years after WW2 has ended, they still call us Germans Kraut´s in their newspaper headlines. I don´t know what my exact point is, but basically I guess I´m saying that too many people with too much power get away with too much shit, and I´m convinced there WILL be another Hitler, even if I have no idea if it will be in the USA, in Africa, Germany...

"Uhm... it back-fired a bit. :( "  - Andy, 12/20/98
#49 by yotsuya
2004-12-06 03:28:23
You Americans lose civil rights every day.

We do?

"yot's a religious nut that really truly actually believes in a physical heaven with a graybearded man on a throne with an individual master plan for all of us and a Make A Mountain clay kit nearby"- gaggle
#50 by FoRmaT
2004-12-06 03:32:25
Cars can run on used cooking oil, today. There is solar power to heat your house. The problem I see is that today everything is made of plastic. Your monitor casing, your camera, your clothes, your birdcage, the paint on your walls... everything. Just figure how many millions of barrels of oil are used every year just for the production of, say, Coca Cola bottles. Can natural resin be a substitute for plastic? It HAS been used in the past.

"Uhm... it back-fired a bit. :( "  - Andy, 12/20/98
#51 by Hippie McFatty
2004-12-06 03:33:13
Hippy_McFatty69@hotmail.com
#31 Wudi the red nosed Llama " I predict Hippie McFatty will be divorced by 2015. "


YoR so Feckin WRONGA!@!
#52 by FoRmaT
2004-12-06 03:33:55
Yeah. Where´s your right not be governed by George W. Bush, for example?

"Uhm... it back-fired a bit. :( "  - Andy, 12/20/98
#53 by Ex-S Woo
2004-12-06 03:44:09
leew5@earthlink.net
Well, there's a reason why elections aren't always Bush vs. non-Bush.  The US population voted...and lost, due to a combination of a diffusion of the democratic population into the red states and not enough people liking Kerry.

Besides, I think of Hilter coming into power more due to the insane socio-economical conditions that existed in post WWI Germany than anything else.  Same thing with Russia and China.

Although Japan did kill did a fuckload of people without such conditions...hmmm...
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