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T O P I C
ARMCHAIR FUTURE 2015
December 5th 2004, 20:37 CET by Marsh Davies

Although I have no wish to give credence to the warblings of a weak trans-temporal-troll like Titor, I must say I admire him for sticking his neck out. By contrast, all we get here is: “We should have predicted this,” or “We were wrong about that…” Yeah, yeah. Whine whinge piss moan. Well, my coterie of budding super-informed globo-political commentators and socio-cultural critics, I invite you to toss away your retrospective rants and leave your haven of hindsight. Squeeze yourself into the polluted comfort of your time-futon and travel with me to a world beyond tomorrow! Yes! Travel with me to… FUTURE TIME!

Similarly valiant voyagers into the uncertain future are the CIA, whose document Global Trends 2015 was declassified in April of this year and sets out a fairly reasonable prediction of the state of the world. Originally completed in December 2000, the predictions regarding Iraq have quite famously failed to come to pass, but, generally, I’m impressed by its scope. “This is not a traditional intelligence assessment, depending on classified sources and methods,” says DCI George Tenet. “Rather, it reflects an Intelligence Community fully engaged with outside experts in a constructive dialogue about the future… Experts from academia, think-tanks and the corporate world have made major contributions.”

It makes an interesting read, particularly the sections regarding the rise of China:
Estimates of China beyond five years are fraught with unknowables. Some projections indicate that Chinese power will rise because of the growth of its economic and military capabilities. Other projections indicate that the array of political, social, and economic pressures will increasingly challenge the stability and legitimacy of the regime. Most assessments today argue that China will seek to avoid conflict in the region to promote stable economic growth and to ensure internal stability. A strong China, others assert, would seek to adjust regional power arrangements to its advantage, risking conflict with neighbors and some powers external to the region. A weak China would increase prospects for criminality, narcotics trafficking, illegal migration, WMD proliferation, and widespread social instability.


More akin to us amateurs, are our Fellow Armchair-Futurists of The Speculist. Amongst a series of specific but small scale predictions are:…

NASA begins to plan seriously for a space elevator. An equatorial island is quietly acquired for this purpose. We return to the moon using proven Saturn V type rockets. It will be the last major NASA initiative to use rocket technology to launch from earth.


and

Artificial blood is perfected. Patients who have lost the ability to produce blood are now given permanent blood replacement. These patients find that the artificial blood is superior. The medical community begins discussing the idea of blood replacement within healthy individuals as an elective procedure.


Finally, there is the delight of LongBets.org. Of those bets with a ten year life span, perhaps the most pertinent to the Crap’s readership is:

In 2012, 75 percent of all revenue for enterprise software companies will be from subscription fees rather than license fees.


And the most… odd…:

By 2012 scientists will not have developed an explanation for how images on the Shroud of Turin came to be on the cloth -an explanation that satisfies all of the physical and chemical properties of the images and does not violate basic laws of physics.


So, then, Crappers of Tomorrow, what can we predict from our own respective fields of knowledge, or alternatively, conjecture from our pools of ignorance? And don’t think you can get away with wishy-washy generality (albeit that this is the extent of a reasonable prediction). No ambiguity: I demand totally speculative Titoresque bullet-pointed lists of events of what could happen. Have a tin-foil hat. Your reputations are not at stake.

Within 10 years:

I foresee the beginnings of centralisation of all digital services: TV, internet, software, telecommunications.

Syria will not be invaded, but offered massive investment, and the opportunity of piping oil through to Israel. Having seen the result of an invasion in Iraq, they will take the carrot.

Cure for cancer found and testing begun.

Insurgency will remain throughout the middle-east, but the area will become more stable at the level of state.

Progressive African governments will begin to receive huge political and financial aid, and the modernisation already evident in the major cities of East African nations, will rapidly spread.

Internet Gun invented. Oslen twin p0rn.
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Home » Topic: ARMCHAIR FUTURE 2015

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#48 by FoRmaT
2004-12-06 03:24:34
I seriously believe there will be another Adolf Hitler. You Americans lose civil rights every day. After 60 years of taboo in Germany, politicians are daring to speak negatively about all the inmigration in Germany. Politicians want to take away the celebration the day of the German reunion. German radio stations are now, or will be in near future, required to play a minimum of x% national music, like it is the case in France. The British consider themselves not part of Europe. 59 years after WW2 has ended, they still call us Germans Kraut´s in their newspaper headlines. I don´t know what my exact point is, but basically I guess I´m saying that too many people with too much power get away with too much shit, and I´m convinced there WILL be another Hitler, even if I have no idea if it will be in the USA, in Africa, Germany...

"Uhm... it back-fired a bit. :( "  - Andy, 12/20/98
#49 by yotsuya
2004-12-06 03:28:23
You Americans lose civil rights every day.

We do?

"yot's a religious nut that really truly actually believes in a physical heaven with a graybearded man on a throne with an individual master plan for all of us and a Make A Mountain clay kit nearby"- gaggle
#50 by FoRmaT
2004-12-06 03:32:25
Cars can run on used cooking oil, today. There is solar power to heat your house. The problem I see is that today everything is made of plastic. Your monitor casing, your camera, your clothes, your birdcage, the paint on your walls... everything. Just figure how many millions of barrels of oil are used every year just for the production of, say, Coca Cola bottles. Can natural resin be a substitute for plastic? It HAS been used in the past.

"Uhm... it back-fired a bit. :( "  - Andy, 12/20/98
#51 by Hippie McFatty
2004-12-06 03:33:13
Hippy_McFatty69@hotmail.com
#31 Wudi the red nosed Llama " I predict Hippie McFatty will be divorced by 2015. "


YoR so Feckin WRONGA!@!
#52 by FoRmaT
2004-12-06 03:33:55
Yeah. Where´s your right not be governed by George W. Bush, for example?

"Uhm... it back-fired a bit. :( "  - Andy, 12/20/98
#53 by Ex-S Woo
2004-12-06 03:44:09
leew5@earthlink.net
Well, there's a reason why elections aren't always Bush vs. non-Bush.  The US population voted...and lost, due to a combination of a diffusion of the democratic population into the red states and not enough people liking Kerry.

Besides, I think of Hilter coming into power more due to the insane socio-economical conditions that existed in post WWI Germany than anything else.  Same thing with Russia and China.

Although Japan did kill did a fuckload of people without such conditions...hmmm...
#54 by yotsuya
2004-12-06 03:49:23
FoRmaT-

I exercised my right to show my displeasure about Bush's presidency by voting on election day. 49% or so of American feel the same way. Problem is, 51% didn't. Seems fair to me.

"yot's a religious nut that really truly actually believes in a physical heaven with a graybearded man on a throne with an individual master plan for all of us and a Make A Mountain clay kit nearby"- gaggle
#55 by FoRmaT
2004-12-06 03:55:20
yot, if you you are NOT losing civil rights, more power to you. My impression after seing the news and reading several posts on PC was, however, that Americans are unhappy about the "price of freedom" issue etc. and have lost rights/freedom. See, I am no politician and there are many implications and issues I don´t understand, but I´m always willing to learn and be corrected.

"Uhm... it back-fired a bit. :( "  - Andy, 12/20/98
#56 by yotsuya
2004-12-06 04:00:25
FoRmaT-

I'm not sure what civil liberties are being infringed upon that direct affect every American. Everything I've heard/read about seems more to deal with law enforcement issue and not everyday basic rights. I'm sure some else could clarify this issue.

"yot's a religious nut that really truly actually believes in a physical heaven with a graybearded man on a throne with an individual master plan for all of us and a Make A Mountain clay kit nearby"- gaggle
#57 by yotsuya
2004-12-06 04:00:56
Some out there has infringed on my right to spell correctly today.

"yot's a religious nut that really truly actually believes in a physical heaven with a graybearded man on a throne with an individual master plan for all of us and a Make A Mountain clay kit nearby"- gaggle
#58 by McBain
2004-12-06 04:02:25
Cars can run on used cooking oil, today.

Do you know where cooking oil comes from?

There is solar power to heat your house.

Do you know how solar panels are made?

The problem I see is that today everything is made of plastic. Your monitor casing, your camera, your clothes, your birdcage, the paint on your walls... everything.

Yep, it's going to be a big problem.

Can natural resin be a substitute for plastic?

Not nearly as effectively or cheaply.

www.dailyhowler.com is the single most important website that Americans should read every day.
"The dreams in which I'm dying are the best I've ever had."
#59 by hangedmanAG
2004-12-06 04:09:17
www.livejournal.com/users/hangedman_ag/
FoRmaT,

I assume that you're talking about the Patriot Act and, while I feel it was a hit to our liberties, it was very minor and most Americans haven't dealt with it at all.  Quite likely, most - if not all - will be revoked as the political pendulum swings the other way (and, in America, it always does)

As for the next Hitler, it could be argued that Hitler never left.  Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge, Milosevic and the Serbs and, even today, the Arabs in Sudan.  Genocide is still in the world and probably always will be, humans being what they are.

S'right
#60 by yotsuya
2004-12-06 04:10:15
Also, FoRmaT, you have to beware the whole "Slippery Slope" concept, where people for some reason think Situation A will definately lead to Situation B, no bones about it.

"yot's a religious nut that really truly actually believes in a physical heaven with a graybearded man on a throne with an individual master plan for all of us and a Make A Mountain clay kit nearby"- gaggle
#61 by FoRmaT
2004-12-06 04:10:28
Do you know where cooking oil comes from?


Yes. They are made of seeds. They can be bottled into glass bottles

Do you know how solar panels are made?


No. I DO know that building solar panels contribute to slowing down the draining of finite recourses.

Not nearly as effectively or cheaply.


But they CAN be used as a substitute. Chosing between NO plastic AT ALL and EXPENSIVE plastic is easy.

"Uhm... it back-fired a bit. :( "  - Andy, 12/20/98
#62 by yotsuya
2004-12-06 04:10:43
Or, what hangedmanAG said.

"yot's a religious nut that really truly actually believes in a physical heaven with a graybearded man on a throne with an individual master plan for all of us and a Make A Mountain clay kit nearby"- gaggle
#63 by Squeaky
2004-12-06 04:11:49
#48 FoRmaT
German radio stations are now, or will be in near future, required to play a minimum of x% national music,

Canada has had a similar law for years. And it brought the world the likes of Rush, Brian Adams, and Theory of a Nickelfault. Clearly this law is responsible for some of the worst atrocities against eardrums.

When you do things right, people won't be sure you've done anything at all. - God
I'm catching up to Ergo!
#64 by yotsuya
2004-12-06 04:14:54
That's Bryan Adams, you unpatriotic fool.

"yot's a religious nut that really truly actually believes in a physical heaven with a graybearded man on a throne with an individual master plan for all of us and a Make A Mountain clay kit nearby"- gaggle
#65 by hangedmanAG
2004-12-06 04:16:16
www.livejournal.com/users/hangedman_ag/
Don't forget Glass Tiger!

S'right
#66 by McBain
2004-12-06 04:17:12
Yes. They are made of seeds. They can be bottled into glass bottles.

Ok, where does the seed come from?  What grows and harvests it?  What transports them to the plant to make the oil?  What builds the machinery at the plant?  What builds and powers the machinery that makes glass bottles?  What transports the glass bottles of cooking oil to you?

I suggest you read "The End of Oil" by Paul Roberts.

He gives the optimistic view.

www.dailyhowler.com is the single most important website that Americans should read every day.
"The dreams in which I'm dying are the best I've ever had."
#67 by FoRmaT
2004-12-06 04:17:28
Going to bed, read you tomorrow!

P.S.: In the past everything was better, even the future.

"Uhm... it back-fired a bit. :( "  - Andy, 12/20/98
#68 by yotsuya
2004-12-06 04:17:58
That "Clearly Canadian Content" rule DID bring us Bob and Doug MacKenzie, for which I am thankful.

And be quiet! "The Blues Brothers" is on AMC right now.

"yot's a religious nut that really truly actually believes in a physical heaven with a graybearded man on a throne with an individual master plan for all of us and a Make A Mountain clay kit nearby"- gaggle
#69 by Squeaky
2004-12-06 04:17:58
#64 yotsuya
That's Bryan Adams, you unpatriotic fool.

There's nothing unpatriotic about hating someone that abandons their country just because they got famous.

When you do things right, people won't be sure you've done anything at all. - God
I'm catching up to Ergo!
#70 by hangedmanAG
2004-12-06 04:49:33
www.livejournal.com/users/hangedman_ag/
Isn't that most of Canada's biggest celebrities?

S'right
#71 by eggbert
2004-12-06 04:50:43
http://www.stuffresearch.com
There's nothing unpatriotic about hating someone that abandons their country just because they got famous.

You know it's true...everything he does, he does it for you.
#72 by Caryn
2004-12-06 04:58:52
carynlaw@pacbell.net http://www.hellchick.net
Since 2015 is only about ten years away, I don't have that much faith that the cars of 2015 won't be using oil. I think the Haliburtons, Dick Cheneys, and Exxons of the world will still be ensuring that there's an American need to drive cars with horrible gas mileage in order to keep then in business.

Are there any oil companies persuing research in alternative fuels? (I'm honestly asking -- I have no idea who's doing any research in that field.)

Spiritual life can be regarded as a course of gradual recovery from the addiction to the peculiar type of awareness that splits everything into subject and object. - George Feuerstein
#73 by Caryn
2004-12-06 05:00:09
carynlaw@pacbell.net http://www.hellchick.net
eggbert, if that song is stuck in my head when I go to bed tonight, I swear to God there will be hell to pay.

(For some unknown reason a few mornings ago, I woke up with the acoustic version of "Boyz in the Hood" stuck in my head.)

Spiritual life can be regarded as a course of gradual recovery from the addiction to the peculiar type of awareness that splits everything into subject and object. - George Feuerstein
#74 by Penguinx
2004-12-06 05:02:13
Shell does hydrogen, ethanol (corn byproduct gas), and solar research. I don't know about other companies.

Mr. Glover would like to wish you a happy holiday.
#75 by Hippie McFatty
2004-12-06 05:07:21
Hippy_McFatty69@hotmail.com
Caryn, Bush has increased funding for alternate fuel research.  

It's not going to happen overnight due to our dependence on oil, but over time we can phase in a new method, and at least they're giving more money to it than previous administrations.  The Halliburton stuff is pure BS.
#76 by Caryn
2004-12-06 05:09:59
carynlaw@pacbell.net http://www.hellchick.net
I knew he increased funding for it, but I wasn't sure what companies were actually doing the research - that was my question.

Spiritual life can be regarded as a course of gradual recovery from the addiction to the peculiar type of awareness that splits everything into subject and object. - George Feuerstein
#77 by McBain
2004-12-06 05:11:25
Shell does hydrogen,


Hydrogen is pipe dream.  Unless some amazing source of hydrogen is found.

ethanol (corn byproduct gas),


Lose.  Takes too much energy to grow corn.

and solar research.


Requires large investment of petroleum and takes years to return the energy invested.

www.dailyhowler.com is the single most important website that Americans should read every day.
"The dreams in which I'm dying are the best I've ever had."
#78 by McBain
2004-12-06 05:11:39
[urk......

www.dailyhowler.com is the single most important website that Americans should read every day.
"The dreams in which I'm dying are the best I've ever had."
#79 by Penguinx
2004-12-06 06:02:01
Corn byproducts are better used for making alcohol anyway.

Mr. Glover would like to wish you a happy holiday.
#80 by LPMiller
2004-12-06 06:13:20
lpmiller@gotapex.com http://www.gotapex.com
And yet, in 1979, they said we had 30 years of oil left in the world.  Pessimist are only ever half right.

When LP says he's bringing Armageddon, he brings fucking Armageddon. - Caryn, 6/01/2004
#81 by yotsuya
2004-12-06 06:14:02
Shit. 5 more years to go. Better start hoarding!

"yot's a religious nut that really truly actually believes in a physical heaven with a graybearded man on a throne with an individual master plan for all of us and a Make A Mountain clay kit nearby"- gaggle
#82 by Leslie Nassar
2004-12-06 06:34:35
http://departmentofinternets.com
in 15 years we will be celebrating 10 years of an oil-free world!

My favorite band sucks.
#83 by McBain
2004-12-06 06:40:54
And yet, in 1979, they said we had 30 years of oil left in the world.

It's not about running out.  We'll never really run out.  It's a matter of supply and demand curves and what that means to an economy that requires growth to stay healthy.

www.dailyhowler.com is the single most important website that Americans should read every day.
"The dreams in which I'm dying are the best I've ever had."
#84 by Greg
2004-12-06 06:42:24
I predict in 2015 Duke Nukem: Battle for the Pentagon will be slowly wrapping up development.

こんにちは
#85 by Leslie Nassar
2004-12-06 06:55:30
http://departmentofinternets.com
i predict that 2015 will be the year of criminally boring FPS expansions, possibly for SiN or Medal of Honor...

My favorite band sucks.
#86 by Leslie Nassar
2004-12-06 07:49:48
http://departmentofinternets.com
18 megabyte screenshot!

My favorite band sucks.
#87 by OwenButler
2004-12-06 08:38:10
http://blog.owenbutler.org/
#59 by hangedmanAG

Genocide is still in the world and probably always will be, humans being what they are.

I don't agree.  Isn't it fair to say that it's less acceptable to kill someone now than say, 2000 years ago?  I can only see that trend continuing - humans being what they are.  Give it another 1000 years and murder and genocide might be in the history books to stay.
#88 by Anonymous
2004-12-06 08:38:32
ethanol (corn byproduct gas)

Ethanol is the bottled thing you like so much to drink. As a byproduct gas, I would go with methane.

Sorry, I just had to.

#89 by Shadarr
2004-12-06 10:08:59
shadarr@yahoo.com http://digital-luddite.com
I predict that stem cell research will cure various diseases and heal nerve damage, but you'll have to come to Canada to get treatment.

Gas will be expensive enough that what's left of the middle class really can't afford to drive an SUV.

At some point in the next ten years all those people who scraped together a downpayment on a house when interest rates were low will lose said house when their mortgage comes due and rates are 2-5% higher.  I hope to be in a position to buy one of these houses.

Cancer will not be cured, like some sort of smallpox repeat.  Specific forms of cancer will have very effective (and likely expensive) treatments, others will have vaccines, and still others will rely on old fashioned treatments that are almost worse than the disease and barely more effective than prayer.

The Republican part will splinter as less radical conservatives get fed up with being bullied into voting for larger government and higher taxes to pay for things like missile defense and the various wars for oil.

Time for your holiday mouthraping
#90 by deadlock
2004-12-06 10:13:01
http://www.deadlocked.org/
Format:
Cars can run on used cooking oil, today.

The original Diesel engine ran on peanut oil, so not only could they do it today, but cars could run on vegetable oil 100 years ago. There's a company down the road from here that converts diesel cars to run on sunflower oil which can be bought from wholesalers for a fraction of the price of the equivalent quantities of diesel.

But - and this is a big but: if every car in Ireland were to be converted to run on sunflower oil, you would need every square foot of arable land in the country to provide the vegetable matter and then some. It's all swings and roundabouts dude.

With regard to the rise of a new Hitler - it's far more complicated than "random madman seizes power and embarks on program of genocide". I suggest "The Coming of the Third Reich" by Richard J. Evans for an interesting insight into the events that led to the start of the Second World War.

They said if I wrote the perfect love song
That you would have me back
So I wrote it
But I lost it
But will you have me back anyway now?
#91 by The_Joker
2004-12-06 10:24:17
http://www.jackinworld.com
Hitler is back. Only, his name is George W. Bush now.

this is cool

Joker, Ph.D. Procedural Assholian Behaviour, Pedophilosopher
- All your ass are belong to my wang Jafd. Prepare to are penetration.
"I fart in THX." - Sgt_Hulka

PENETRATOR: Rise of the Wang Cuming "When it's done".
The American government and its supporters suck cock. See Fahrenheit 9/11 and discover the truth.
#92 by Eyegore
2004-12-06 10:33:34
http://home.cfl.rr.com/eyegore/gallery.htm
Back to the topic...The next decade will be to robots what the last was to computers.  By 2015 we will have our household robots.  I don't know if they'll be up to the C3P0/I Robot level, but I wouldn't be at all suprised.  Of course this is bound to cause major problems with people losing thier jobs to robots, and that whole aspect of it will be complicated and sucky, but the robot in my house that makes dinner, does the dishes, and gets me a drink will be awesome and well worth it.
#93 by Marsh Davies
2004-12-06 10:49:54
www.verbalchilli.com
deadlock
But - and this is a big but: if every car in Ireland were to be converted to run on sunflower oil, you would need every square foot of arable land in the country to provide the vegetable matter and then some.


I don't quite understand why this hasn't happened in Britain. I don't know how it is in Ireland, but here farming is already massively subsidised. Wouldn't it be better to have them produce something they can actually make money on?

As McBain says, however, it may be a system of diminishing returns: that it is impossible to produce the quantity of energy required in the process of harvesting and distributing oil. That's certainly the case with solar power.

What I'd like to see, in terms of environmental issues, is a better recycling initiative that takes it out of the hands of the public - UK manufacturers obliged to use packaging from third party companies, and then the actual packaging companies handed contracts for recycling. I think something like this may already be underway, judging by the increasing ubiquity of Tetra-Pak (soon to replace the tin can as well).

#94 by m0nty
2004-12-06 11:00:59
http://tinfinger.blogspot.com
By 2015 every poster on every board on the Internet will have an icon wearing a Santa hat.
#95 by deadlock
2004-12-06 11:57:56
http://www.deadlocked.org/
Marsh:
I don't quite understand why this hasn't happened in Britain. I don't know how it is in Ireland, but here farming is already massively subsidised. Wouldn't it be better to have them produce something they can actually make money on?

It hasn't happened for the reason that I specified and what McBain referred to: diminishing returns. Britain wouldn't be big enough to provide enough oil for British drivers. And if every available piece of arable land is given over to oil production you'd end up importing the vast majority of your foodstuffs.

They said if I wrote the perfect love song
That you would have me back
So I wrote it
But I lost it
But will you have me back anyway now?
#96 by anaqer
2004-12-06 12:08:52
My predictions... hmm... I guess it's safe to say that *in the future there will be robots*... and we'll probably see a SiN 2 by then (2015... get it? har har har)

I DO NOT CHEAT.
I just play by extended rules.
#97 by zimbardo_ugly
2004-12-06 12:32:22
zimbardo_ugly@hotmail.com
anaqer, your joke license is hereby revoked.

"They know that Hamlet and Lear are gay;
Gaiety transfiguring all that dread."
--W. B. Yeats
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